Wed. Sep 28th, 2022


While all full size luxury sedans supposedly compete with each
other, the Tesla Model S and Porsche Taycan face off against each
other to a greater degree, given that they are the only two
electric vehicles in this segment with historical data (the
Mercedes-Benz EQS and Lucid Air just launched this past fall and
therefore have little data with which to analyze their
performances).

A review of the migration patterns of these two full size luxury
electric vehicles, as well as their inventory levels and
registration volumes, suggests there is substantial marketplace
interaction between them.

As shown on the table below, there are three time periods within
the past twenty two months when Taycan registrations jumped month
over month and, simultaneously, Model S migrations to the Taycan
also rose. In April 2020, Taycan registrations jumped 268% to 153,
and at the same time the percent of Model S households that
migrated to a Taycan rose from .2% to 3.3%, an increase of more
than 1,000%.

The same type of dynamic occurred four months later in August
2020, when Taycan registrations climbed 38% month-over-month to
615, and Model S migration to Taycan simultaneously more than
doubled (as a percent of total Model S migrations) to 11%.

The third and last of these events, which occurred in August
2021, was the most pronounced of the three. Taycan registrations
climbed 44% to 1, 072, and Model S migrations to Taycan, as a
percent of Total Model S migrations, more than doubled to 17.3%.
This metric actually climbed in September to 21.4%, the highest
monthly tally of Model S migrations to Taycan in this 22 month
window.

During this third event, note that heightened migration from
Model S to Taycan had a substantial impact on Model S fuel
type/brand loyalty. In other words, during this series of events
last August and September, the percent of Model S households
acquiring another EV that returned to Tesla dropped to 22 month
lows of 75% and 67.5%, respectively.

Lastly, it is important to bear in mind that these heighted
movements from Model S to Taycan occurred at times when Model S
registrations were substantially below monthly norms, suggesting
limited supplies. With this in mind, it seems to be too early to
determine which of these models has the greater appeal to retail
consumers. Only when both models’ inventories have climbed back to
“normal” levels will we be able to see how the market dynamics net
out between them.




Posted 09 February 2022 by Tom Libby, Associate Director Loyalty Solutions and Industry Analysis, Automotive, S&P Global Mobility

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